Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
